How do large school district graduation rates compare with small school district graduation rates?  Is Granite’s graduation rate as poor as I’ve heard, 36^th out of 40?

The answer to this question takes some time and involves looking at data.

This is one of those questions that critics love to answer by using sweeping generalizations and lumping dissimilar school districts together under a broad umbrella.  According to Murphy’s Law Book Two: “Complex problems have simple, easy-to-understand wrong answers.”  It is simple, and relatively accurate, to say that large school districts across the country have poor graduation rates.  It is a wrong answer, however, to conclude that Utah’s largest school districts have poor graduation rates.

It is helpful, when someone says something like “small districts have better results than large districts” to respond, “since we live in Utah, let’s sit down and look at the data for Utah.”  Looking at graduation rates specifically, if you turn to Table 3 of the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research Civic Report of April 2006 http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/cr_48.htm , you will see the 100 largest school districts in the United States along with their graduation rates (2003).  The largest 12 school districts have a graduation rate of 60% or less!  Note as well that all of these districts have more than 160,000 students – more than twice the number of the largest Utah district – and the largest district in the country has more than 1,000,000 students. 

As you go down the list, you come to Jordan School District, 40^th in size (in 2003) with 73,808 students.  Jordan’s graduation rate is 82%.  Granite District, 45^th in size, 78%;  Davis School District, 64^th in size, 89%; and Alpine School District, 88^th in size, 81%.  Now, turn to Table 1, ranking all states; Utah ranks 14^th in the country with an overall graduation rate of 77%.  If the graduation rates of the four largest districts in the State of Utah are all higher than the state average, what districts are pulling the average down?  Those that are smaller than the four largest!  In Utah, large districts, including Granite, tend (there are exceptions) to outperform smaller districts as measured by graduation rates. 

Now, it is also important to note a key finding from the Manhattan Institute report.  Nationally there is a “wide disparity in the public high school graduation rates of white and minority students.”  A researcher could explain away Granite’s “low” graduation rate (in comparison to Jordan, Davis and Alpine districts) by pointing to Granite’s demographics, including socio-economics.  An apologist could sidestep the issue – using statistics – by pointing out that if Granite were a state, it would have the 11^th highest graduation rate in the country and that in any event Granite’s rate is higher than Utah’s average.

Regarding Granite specifically, we do not know where the “36^th out of 40” came from.  The closest we can find is from a 2004-2005 Utah State Office of Education report looking at cohort graduation rate that ranked Granite as 32^nd with a rate of 74.4%.  The same report ranked Juab as 39^th with a rate of 87.1% and Ogden as 23^rd with a rate of 62.2%.  Something is clearly wrong (another reason to look at the data yourself).  Other studies of graduation rates have been conducted as well, recently one by Education Week and another by the National Center for Education Statistics, with results different from each other and both the Manhattan Institute and the USOE.  To understand the differences, we would need to look closely at the assumptions on which the studies are based or the questions that have been asked to elicit the data.  For example, did they look at 12^th graders who started the year or 9^th graders from four years ago?  How did the study factor students who moved in and students who moved out?

Reports, regardless of who produced them, can be used in many different ways.  We are most interested in data that helps inform instructional decisions for individual students, classrooms, grade levels, subjects, and schools.  How is this student (or teacher, class, school, etc.) doing overall and what areas need attention?

Graduation rates are important as well.  They help inform us about the district, schools and teachers, but most importantly about individual students.  We are not content that our female students (91%) graduate at a rate higher than Jordan, Davis and Alpine districts.  We are not content that our white students (86%) graduate at a higher rate than Jordan and Alpine districts.  Individual students are much more important than averages or rates.  We continue to strive – as we sincerely believe all districts and schools do, regardless of size – to help each individual student achieve, excel and graduate “with the knowledge and skills needed for lifelong success in a changing world.”